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You are here: Home / News / Fife Lagging Behind in Market Recovery
Fife Lagging Behind in Market Recovery
Date
17th Feb 2010
News Story
Senior partner Michael Maloco comments on an article by journalist Jeff Salway in The Scotsman of 16th. February.
I am sure that the headline of this piece will be what most publications pick up on and trumpet - "Scottish House Prices Bouncing Back" - but as ever the devil is in the detail and to my mind an important part of our job in building meaningful relationships with clients is to help decipher the code of press-speak and distill the welter of information.
I am sure that the headline of this piece will be what most publications pick up on and trumpet - "Scottish House Prices Bouncing Back" - but as ever the devil is in the detail and to my mind an important part of our job in building meaningful relationships with clients is to help decipher the code of press-speak and distill the welter of information.
Whilst house prices across Scotland rose in the three months to 31 January by an average of 5.9%, they were still 6.8% lower as at 31 January 2010 than they had been at 31 January 2009. That is to say prices fell throughout 2009 but rallied in the last quarter a little.
Bad news is this wasn't universal and in Fife and Central prices declined by 7.6% in that three months. Effectively therefor prices here in Fife as at 31 January were statistically some 14% BELOW January 2009. Now I suspect that the Fife figures are skewed by two things - the poorer performance of the east of Fife and the very low numbers going through. The latter fact is recognised by Professor MacRae Chief Economist of Lloyds TSB who mentions the stats. being based upon much reduced levels of activity.
Those thinking of selling sadly have to be aware of the detail behind such reports and seldom is the true picture as simple as the headlines suggest. With Fife Council required to save £200 million over the next three years it is likely that there will at the least be a cut in the hours of some local authority employees and this will neither benefit confidence or an ability to borrow. The article contains a comment from an Edinburgh agent stating he is confident demand will continue to outstrip demand. That is of course a comment re his own area and I would be a litle more cautious for Dunfermline district. In all honesty I think that the next phase of new build releases coming in the spring and early summer could just tilt the balance back the other way. The builders will incentivize sales if they prove to be flagging and that always provides stiff competition for the second hand market.
Realistic pricing remains the key to successful marketing in the current climate and to some extent Home Reports have helped although there are still more homes selling for below their Home Report values across Fife than are achieving these.
The report only confirms what we have been saying to our clients in our regular updates and that is that 2010 is going to be another difficult year with little in the way of uplift in either prices or activity.
The report only confirms what we have been saying to our clients in our regular updates and that is that 2010 is going to be another difficult year with little in the way of uplift in either prices or activity.